Bitumen is one of the most widely used materials in road construction and infrastructure development. From highways and city roads to waterproofing and industrial applications, bitumen plays a crucial role in everyday development. Because of this close link with construction activity, its price often moves in line with seasons, government spending, and crude oil trends.
In this article, we take a clear and easy-to-understand look at the Bitumen Price Forecast, focusing on what happened in North India during the third quarter of 2025 and what general market experience suggests for the coming months. The aim is to explain the situation in simple language that reflects real-world market behavior.
Understanding Why Bitumen Prices Change
Bitumen prices are influenced by a mix of factors. Seasonal demand is one of the biggest drivers, especially in countries like India where monsoon rains slow down construction work. Crude oil prices also matter because bitumen is a refinery product. On top of that, government infrastructure spending, contractor cash flow, refinery production levels, and trader sentiment all play important roles.
When several of these factors move in the same direction, bitumen prices can either rise steadily or decline over several months.
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Market Situation in North India During Q3 2025
In the third quarter of 2025, bitumen prices in North India continued on a downward path. This decline did not happen suddenly but developed gradually across consecutive months. The main reason was weaker seasonal demand caused by the monsoon period, which traditionally slows down road construction and infrastructure work.
Heavy rains made it difficult for contractors to carry out paving and repair projects. As a result, purchases of bitumen dropped, and refinery offtake slowed. With fewer buyers in the market, prices naturally came under pressure.
Impact of the Monsoon Season
The monsoon season plays a very important role in the bitumen market. During this period, many construction projects are either paused or run at minimal capacity. In Q3 2025, this seasonal slowdown was clearly visible.
Contractors avoided large purchases because storage during the rainy season can be risky. Wet conditions also delay project timelines, reducing the urgency to buy materials. This sharp reduction in demand was one of the biggest contributors to falling prices.
Influence of Crude Oil Prices
Another important factor during Q3 2025 was easing crude oil values. Since bitumen is derived from crude oil during the refining process, changes in crude prices often affect bitumen pricing.
Lower crude prices reduced cost pressure on refineries, allowing them to offer bitumen at more competitive rates. This added further downward pressure to prices, especially when combined with weak demand.
Oversupply and Refinery Output
While demand was weak, refinery output remained steady. Refineries continued producing bitumen at normal levels, leading to localized oversupply in some areas of North India. When supply exceeds demand, prices usually soften as sellers compete to move material.
To manage inventory and maintain cash flow, sellers focused on liquidity rather than price strength. This meant offering selective discounts to attract buyers, even if margins were lower. These discounts helped keep some trade activity alive but reinforced the overall downward trend.
Price Movement During the Quarter
According to Price-Watch AI, the bitumen price trend during Q3 2025 moved between USD 490 and USD 515 per metric ton. This range reflected a consistent softening pattern rather than sharp volatility.
The decline was mainly driven by lower infrastructure offtake, delayed payments for public projects, and cautious buying behavior among traders. Many traders preferred to buy only what was necessary, avoiding stock buildup in a falling market.
Role of Payment Delays and Trader Sentiment
Delayed payments from public infrastructure projects added another layer of pressure. Contractors waiting for payments were less willing to invest in fresh material. This reduced purchasing power further weakened demand.
Trader sentiment also turned cautious. In a declining market, buyers often expect prices to fall further and delay purchases. This wait-and-watch approach slows market activity and contributes to continued price softness.
September 2025: Closing the Quarter on a Weak Note
By September 2025, the market remained subdued. Prices fell by about 3.52% month-on-month, closing the quarter with weak sentiment. Even though supply was ample, buying interest remained limited.
Competitive pricing helped maintain moderate trade levels, but there was no strong push for price recovery. Most market participants accepted that Q3 was a low-demand period and focused on preparing for the next phase.
Bitumen Price Forecast for the Coming Months
Looking ahead, the Bitumen Price Forecast suggests the possibility of a mild recovery rather than a sharp rebound. As the monsoon season ends, infrastructure activity is expected to resume gradually. Road construction, repairs, and delayed projects usually pick up pace in the post-monsoon period.
This increase in activity could improve demand for bitumen, especially for commonly used grades like VG-10. Better payment cycles from government and public sector projects may also improve contractor liquidity, allowing them to place new orders.
Why the Recovery Is Expected to Be Moderate
While demand is expected to improve, the recovery is likely to be gradual. Refineries still have sufficient supply, and buyers may remain cautious in the early stages. Price increases, if any, are expected to be measured rather than aggressive.
General market experience shows that bitumen prices tend to recover slowly after the monsoon, stabilizing before moving higher during peak construction months.
Factors to Watch Going Forward
Several factors will influence how the market behaves:
- Speed of post-monsoon infrastructure activity
- Government project execution and payment timelines
- Crude oil price movement
- Refinery production planning
- Trader and contractor confidence
If these factors align positively, prices may find support and move upward slowly.
What Buyers Should Keep in Mind
For buyers, the current environment offers an opportunity to plan carefully. With prices recently at lower levels, buyers can evaluate short-term needs and avoid panic buying. Monitoring demand recovery and payment flows will be key.
What Sellers and Traders Should Consider
For sellers, maintaining balanced inventory and flexible pricing will be important. As demand improves, managing supply without flooding the market can help support price stability.
'Conclusion
In summary, Q3 2025 was a challenging period for the bitumen market in North India. Prices declined steadily due to weak seasonal demand, monsoon disruptions, easing crude oil prices, and steady refinery output. The quarter ended with subdued sentiment, especially in September.
The Bitumen Price Forecast points toward a mild and gradual recovery in the coming months as post-monsoon infrastructure activity resumes and payment conditions improve. While a strong price surge seems unlikely in the short term, stable demand recovery could provide moderate upward support.
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About Price-Watch AI
Price-Watch AI is an independent raw material price reporting agency that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. Price-Watch AI specializes in tracking raw material prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand-supply dynamics. The Price-Watch AI platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions. Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and over a decade of historical data, Price-Watch AI transforms market volatility into actionable opportunity.
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